Markets on Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Mixed markets: the trend is up in DAX, WTI and USD/JPY and down in SP500, VIX, GOLD, SILVER, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVIDIA and GOOGLE. Overall sentiment is…

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Daily Market
Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026 · SP500 · DAX · VIX · WTI · GOLD · SILVER · EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · NVIDIA · GOOGLE · MICROSOFT
Data from the US market close on Monday, Oct 26 (4 pm New York time)
Generated Oct 27, 2026, 11:15 Romania time (EET) · For information only, not investment advice (see the disclaimer at the end)
Daily Brief · the markets in short
The state of the markets and sentiment at the session close, all in one place
Mixed markets: the trend is up in DAX, WTI and USD/JPY and down in SP500, VIX, GOLD, SILVER, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVIDIA and GOOGLE. Overall sentiment is fear (38 of 100), more cautious than a week ago (44).
38
FEAR
Overall sentiment · average of the 11 markets
a week ago: 44
extreme fearneutralextreme greed
What you need to know today
  • Biggest sentiment shift: USD/JPY, from 58 to 38 in a week (fear).
  • Options: money is betting on a decline in GOLD, on a decline in SILVER and on a decline in EUR/USD. The other instruments have no dominant bet.
  • Short-term stress in GOLD and GBP/USD: short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones, so investors are paying for immediate protection.
  • Calendar: important US releases are due this week. Next major event: Fed interest rate decision (FOMC), Wed Oct 28, 20:00.
Today’s financial news
  1. Treasury Yields Mixed as Markets Price In a Fed Hold — WSJ
  2. Asian stocks rise as AI enthusiasm returns ahead of earnings, central bank decisions — Reuters
  3. Exclusive | Death Threats, Lawsuits and Billions in Play: The Battle Over Moving Russian Oil — WSJ
  4. Gold eases on firmer dollar ahead of Fed decision — CNBC
  5. Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Rally — WSJ
Click a headline to read the article.
All markets at a glance
MarketCloseTrendSentimentOptions5 days, 70% chance
SP5007,677 +0.70%STRONG SELL39 fear ↓10⇅ SPLIT7,541 – 7,815
DAX25,411 +0.91%BUY45 fearNO OPTIONS24,885 – 25,947
VIX18.39 -5.45%SELL–⚡ VOLATILE15.97 – 21.17
WTI101.76 -1.46%BUY53 neutral ↓11↔ STABLE94.37 – 109.73
GOLD4,038 +0.76%STRONG SELL32 fear ↓11↓ DECLINE3,923 – 4,157
SILVER54.11 +0.74%STRONG SELL28 fear ↓8↓ DECLINE51.34 – 57.02
EUR/USD1.1218 -0.03%STRONG SELL31 fear ↓5↓ DECLINE1.1112 – 1.1324
GBP/USD1.3378 -0.20%STRONG SELL46 neutral ↑18⇅ SPLIT1.3254 – 1.3503
USD/JPY156.83 +0.21%STRONG BUY38 fear ↓20NO OPTIONS155.77 – 157.90
NVIDIA216.00 +2.39%SELL36 fear ↑4⇅ SPLIT204.14 – 228.54
GOOGLE316.80 -1.06%STRONG SELL30 fear ↓10⇅ SPLIT300.67 – 333.79
MICROSOFT532.60 +1.54%NEUTRAL39 fear ↓14⇅ SPLIT509.99 – 556.21
To watch
SP500 – Price moved above the weekly pivot P (7,669).
DAX – Price moved above the weekly pivot P (25,300).
VIX – The technical signal reversed: BUY → SELL.
GOLD – New technical signal: momentum has turned down.
SILVER – The technical signal reversed: BUY → STRONG SELL.
GBP/USD – New technical signal: momentum has turned up.
NVIDIA – Price moved above the weekly pivot P (214.44).
MICROSOFT – Price moved above the weekly pivot P (525.26).
Wed Oct 28, 20:00 – Fed interest rate decision (FOMC) · SPX options are pricing a ±0.86% move (1.1× a normal day)
Thu Oct 29, 14:30 – PCE inflation · SPX options are pricing a ±0.89% move (1.1× a normal day)
Summary generated automatically from the report data. It describes the state of the market at the close and does not predict direction. The details are in the other tabs.
Market sentiment · Fear & Greed
0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed · each indicator is compared with its own past year · describes the state of the market, does not predict direction
Tap a gauge to see what is behind the number.
In short: fear in US stocks (SP500), DAX, gold, silver, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT); neutral in oil and GBP/USD.
US stocks (SP500): 39 · fear
yesterday
37
fear		a week ago
48
neutral		a month ago
80
extreme greed		a year ago
52
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
15
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 1.5% above its 6-month average – a smaller lead than on 85% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
38
FEAR		Now: The technical score is -25.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
60
GREED		Now: Put/call 1.13 – fewer puts are being bought than on 60% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
40
FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 60% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
53
NEUTRAL		Now: IV30 13.9% – higher than on 47% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
21
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
45
FEAR		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more puts were opened (−0.4% of existing positions) – tilted more towards puts than on 55% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index).
DAX: 45 · fear
yesterday
37
fear		a week ago
44
fear		a month ago
46
neutral		a year ago
45
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
33
FEAR		Now: Price is 0.4% above its 6-month average – a smaller lead than on 67% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
58
GREED		Now: The technical score is +15.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Volatility
43
FEAR		Now: Realized volatility 14.4% – higher than on 57% of days in the past year.
20-day realized volatility compared with the past year (there is no options data for the DAX). High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
Oil: 53 · neutral
yesterday
58
greed		a week ago
64
greed		a month ago
41
fear		a year ago
54
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
72
GREED		Now: Price is 14.5% above its 6-month average – a bigger lead than on 72% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
92
EXTREME GREED		Now: The technical score is +85.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
33
FEAR		Now: Put/call 1.08 – more puts are being bought than on 67% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
40
FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 60% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
35
FEAR		Now: IV30 53.9% – higher than on 65% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
75
EXTREME GREED		Now: Normal structure (contango 0.48), steeper than on 75% of days in the past year.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
24
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more puts were opened (−4.1% of existing positions) – tilted more towards puts than on 76% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
Gold: 32 · fear
yesterday
31
fear		a week ago
43
fear		a month ago
49
neutral		a year ago
58
greed
1 year agotoday
Momentum
17
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 6.6% below its 6-month average – lower than on 83% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
0
EXTREME FEAR		Now: The technical score is -100.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
17
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Put/call 0.84 – more puts are being bought than on 83% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
17
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 83% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
85
EXTREME GREED		Now: IV30 20.5% – higher than on 15% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
38
FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
53
NEUTRAL		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+1.0% of existing positions) – tilted more towards calls than on 53% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index).
Silver: 28 · fear
yesterday
23
extreme fear		a week ago
36
fear		a month ago
53
neutral		a year ago
56
greed
1 year agotoday
Momentum
13
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 17.1% below its 6-month average – lower than on 87% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
0
EXTREME FEAR		Now: The technical score is -100.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
12
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Put/call 0.70 – more puts are being bought than on 88% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
10
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 90% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
83
EXTREME GREED		Now: IV30 37.5% – higher than on 17% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
25
FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
54
NEUTRAL		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+0.7% of existing positions) – tilted more towards calls than on 54% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index).
EUR/USD: 31 · fear
yesterday
30
fear		a week ago
36
fear		a month ago
34
fear		a year ago
47
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
8
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 2.4% below its 6-month average – lower than on 92% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
32
FEAR		Now: The technical score is -35.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
46
NEUTRAL		Now: Put/call 5.83 – more puts are being bought than on 54% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
18
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 82% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
11
EXTREME FEAR		Now: IV30 7.3% – higher than on 89% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
33
FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
69
GREED		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+1.6% of existing positions) – tilted more towards calls than on 69% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: positive (for information, not part of the index).
GBP/USD: 46 · neutral
yesterday
46
neutral		a week ago
28
fear		a month ago
38
fear		a year ago
42
fear
1 year agotoday
Momentum
44
FEAR		Now: Price is 0.2% below its 6-month average – lower than on 56% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
38
FEAR		Now: The technical score is -25.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Cost of protection
54
NEUTRAL		Now: Downside protection is cheaper than on 54% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
56
GREED		Now: IV30 7.2% – higher than on 44% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
51
NEUTRAL		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
36
FEAR		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+1.3% of existing positions) – tilted more towards puts than on 64% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
USD/JPY: 38 · fear
yesterday
41
fear		a week ago
58
greed		a month ago
16
extreme fear		a year ago
84
extreme greed
1 year agotoday
Momentum
5
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 1.5% below its 6-month average – lower than on 95% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
30
FEAR		Now: The technical score is -40.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Volatility
80
EXTREME GREED		Now: Realized volatility 4.8% – higher than on 20% of days in the past year.
20-day realized volatility compared with the past year (there is no options data for the DAX). High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Tone of the analyses published today: positive (for information, not part of the index).
Nvidia (NVDA): 36 · fear
yesterday
26
fear		a week ago
32
fear		a month ago
77
extreme greed		a year ago
51
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
21
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 0.7% above its 6-month average – a smaller lead than on 79% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
32
FEAR		Now: The technical score is -35.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
29
FEAR		Now: Put/call 0.61 – more puts are being bought than on 71% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
22
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 78% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
72
GREED		Now: IV30 41.4% – higher than on 28% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
33
FEAR		Now: Normal structure (contango 0.15), steeper than on 33% of days in the past year.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
44
FEAR		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+0.0% of existing positions) – tilted more towards puts than on 56% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
Google (GOOGL): 30 · fear
yesterday
20
extreme fear		a week ago
41
fear		a month ago
55
greed		a year ago
44
fear
1 year agotoday
Momentum
0
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Price is 10.9% below its 6-month average – lower than on 100% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
0
EXTREME FEAR		Now: The technical score is -100.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
51
NEUTRAL		Now: Put/call 0.50 – fewer puts are being bought than on 51% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
65
GREED		Now: Downside protection is cheaper than on 65% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
28
FEAR		Now: IV30 38.4% – higher than on 72% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
1
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
68
GREED		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more calls were opened (+0.9% of existing positions) – tilted more towards calls than on 68% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
Microsoft (MSFT): 39 · fear
yesterday
36
fear		a week ago
53
neutral		a month ago
69
greed		a year ago
47
neutral
1 year agotoday
Momentum
83
EXTREME GREED		Now: Price is 17.6% above its 6-month average – a bigger lead than on 83% of days in the past year.
Price relative to its 125-day average (~6 months). Further above the average than usual = greed; below the average = fear.
Technical trend
68
GREED		Now: The technical score is +35.
The trend score on the daily chart (from −100 to +100), compared with the past year. Uptrend = greed; downtrend = fear.
Put/Call
27
FEAR		Now: Put/call 0.68 – more puts are being bought than on 73% of days in the past year.
How many puts (downside protection) are bought for every call, 5-day average. Many puts compared with the past year = fear; few = greed.
Cost of protection
40
FEAR		Now: Downside protection is more expensive than on 60% of days in the past year.
How expensive puts are relative to calls (25Δ skew, 30 days). Expensive protection = fear; expensive calls = greed.
Volatility
31
FEAR		Now: IV30 33.1% – higher than on 69% of days in the past year.
Implied volatility (IV30) compared with the past year. High volatility = fear; low volatility = calm / greed.
Term structure
3
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Short-dated options are more expensive than long-dated ones (backwardation) – the market is paying for immediate protection.
Long-dated options relative to short-dated ones (contango). Short-dated options more expensive than long-dated ones = fear of something imminent; the reverse = calm.
New positions
22
EXTREME FEAR		Now: Over the last 5 days, net more puts were opened (−1.5% of existing positions) – tilted more towards puts than on 78% of days in the past year.
New contracts opened over the last 5 days: calls minus puts, weighted. More calls opened than usual = greed; more puts = fear.
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index).
How it is calculated: each indicator gets a score from 0 to 100 based on how today's value compares with the last 252 sessions (e.g. 80 = “greedier” than on 80% of days in the past year). The final score is their average, with equal weights. There is no options data for the DAX, so its index uses only momentum, trend and volatility. Extremes show a stretched market, but historical tests have not shown that they predict the direction of the following days.
Forecast for the next session
Based on the last 20 sessions · ranges verified on historical data · not a guarantee
Warning – the forecast is not a guarantee. The estimates below are statistical calculations based on the last 20 sessions and on history since 2007. The market can break out of these ranges at any time, especially on unexpected news. We accept no liability for the forecast or for any decisions or losses resulting from its use. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
SP500
STRONG SELL
DAX
BUY
VIX
SELL
WTI
BUY
GOLD
STRONG SELL
SILVER
STRONG SELL
EUR/USD
STRONG SELL
GBPUSD
STRONG SELL
USDJPY
STRONG BUY
NVIDIA
SELL
GOOGLE
STRONG SELL
MICROSOFT
HOLD
70% chance90% chancetoday's closeR / S, P = level and the chance it is reached tomorrow
SP500Tue Oct 27 · close 7,677 · typical move ±0.62%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options.
R1 25%P 69%7,6777,5927,763
R1 25%P 69%7,6777,5927,763
70% chance of closing between 7,628 – 7,726 · 90% between 7,592 – 7,763 · typical high ≈ 7,702, typical low ≈ 7,654
Chance of reaching:↑ R1 7,725 · 25%↑ R2 7,827 · under 1%↓ P 7,669 · 69%↓ S1 7,567 · 5%
DAXTue Oct 27 · close 25,411 · typical move ±0.90%BUY
Why: Uptrend, no options data.
R1 39%P 51%25,41125,00125,828
R1 39%P 51%25,41125,00125,828
70% chance of closing between 25,181 – 25,643 · 90% between 25,001 – 25,828 · typical high ≈ 25,544, typical low ≈ 25,295
Chance of reaching:↑ R1 25,587 · 39%↑ R2 25,993 · 2%↓ P 25,300 · 51%↓ S1 24,895 · 6%
VIXTue Oct 27 · close 18.39 · typical move ±6.85%SELL
Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options.
P 64%R1 10%S1 22%18.3916.3320.71
P 64%R1 10%S1 22%18.3916.3320.71
70% chance of closing between 17.22 – 19.63 · 90% between 16.33 – 20.71 · typical high ≈ 19.19, typical low ≈ 17.73
Chance of reaching:↑ P 18.87 · 64%↑ R1 21.24 · 10%↓ S1 17.09 · 22%↓ S2 14.72 · under 1%
WTITue Oct 27 · close 101.76 · typical move ±2.47%BUY
Why: Uptrend, no dominant bet in options.
P 52%101.7697.47106.24
P 52%101.7697.47106.24
70% chance of closing between 99.21 – 104.38 · 90% between 97.47 – 106.24 · typical high ≈ 103.42, typical low ≈ 100.17
Chance of reaching:↑ P 103.34 · 52%↑ R1 110.41 · under 1%↓ S1 96.19 · 5%↓ S2 89.12 · under 1%
GOLDTue Oct 27 · close 4,038 · typical move ±0.97%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline.
P 36%4,0383,9704,108
P 36%4,0383,9704,108
70% chance of closing between 4,001 – 4,076 · 90% between 3,970 – 4,108 · typical high ≈ 4,060, typical low ≈ 4,020
Chance of reaching:↑ P 4,069 · 36%↑ R1 4,150 · 2%↓ S1 3,928 · 2%↓ S2 3,847 · under 1%
SILVERTue Oct 27 · close 54.11 · typical move ±2.17%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline.
P 29%R1 6%S1 11%54.1152.0656.23
P 29%R1 6%S1 11%54.1152.0656.23
70% chance of closing between 52.99 – 55.25 · 90% between 52.06 – 56.23 · typical high ≈ 54.54, typical low ≈ 53.79
Chance of reaching:↑ P 55.04 · 29%↑ R1 56.37 · 6%↓ S1 52.38 · 11%↓ S2 51.05 · 3%
EUR/USDTue Oct 27 · close 1.1218 · typical move ±0.26%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline.
P 68%R1 23%S1 33%1.12181.11671.1269
P 68%R1 23%S1 33%1.12181.11671.1269
70% chance of closing between 1.1188 – 1.1247 · 90% between 1.1167 – 1.1269 · typical high ≈ 1.1235, typical low ≈ 1.1200
Chance of reaching:↑ P 1.1223 · 68%↑ R1 1.1258 · 23%↓ S1 1.1186 · 33%↓ S2 1.1150 · 8%
GBPUSDTue Oct 27 · close 1.3378 · typical move ±0.29%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options.
R1 15%P 74%S1 32%1.33781.33091.3446
R1 15%P 74%S1 32%1.33781.33091.3446
70% chance of closing between 1.3338 – 1.3417 · 90% between 1.3309 – 1.3446 · typical high ≈ 1.3402, typical low ≈ 1.3352
Chance of reaching:↑ R1 1.3446 · 15%↑ R2 1.3488 · 4%↓ P 1.3375 · 74%↓ S1 1.3333 · 32%
USDJPYTue Oct 27 · close 156.83 · typical move ±0.30%STRONG BUY
Why: Uptrend, no options data.
P 53%156.83156.03157.64
P 53%156.83156.03157.64
70% chance of closing between 156.36 – 157.30 · 90% between 156.03 – 157.64 · typical high ≈ 157.10, typical low ≈ 156.57
Chance of reaching:↑ P 157.06 · 53%↑ R1 158.03 · 6%↓ S1 155.53 · 6%↓ S2 154.56 · under 1%
NVIDIATue Oct 27 · close 216.00 · typical move ±1.91%SELL
Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options.
R1 46%P 59%216.00209.10223.13
R1 46%P 59%216.00209.10223.13
70% chance of closing between 211.95 – 220.13 · 90% between 209.10 – 223.13 · typical high ≈ 218.44, typical low ≈ 213.87
Chance of reaching:↑ R1 218.71 · 46%↑ R2 226.45 · 3%↓ P 214.44 · 59%↓ S1 206.70 · 4%
GOOGLETue Oct 27 · close 316.80 · typical move ±1.34%STRONG SELL
Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options.
S1 17%316.80309.61324.15
S1 17%316.80309.61324.15
70% chance of closing between 312.77 – 320.88 · 90% between 309.61 – 324.15 · typical high ≈ 319.26, typical low ≈ 314.68
Chance of reaching:↑ P 328.99 · 2%↑ R1 337.80 · under 1%↓ S1 311.40 · 17%↓ S2 302.59 · under 1%
MICROSOFTTue Oct 27 · close 532.60 · typical move ±1.23%HOLD
Why: No clear signal: no clear trend, no dominant bet in options.
R1 65%R2 8%P 22%532.60521.21544.24
R1 65%R2 8%P 22%532.60521.21544.24
70% chance of closing between 526.20 – 539.08 · 90% between 521.21 – 544.24 · typical high ≈ 536.33, typical low ≈ 529.05
Chance of reaching:↑ R1 534.82 · 65%↑ R2 545.13 · 8%↓ P 525.26 · 22%↓ S1 514.95 · 3%
How the verdict is formed. BUY or SELL when the technical trend and options positioning point in the same direction, or when only one of them has a direction (STRONG when both agree or the trend is very strong); HOLD when they contradict each other or neither has a direction. It is a signal, not a probability: tested over 2007–2026, no model called the next day's direction better than chance. The ranges, on the other hand, are verified: the 70% range contained the close on 68%–73% of days (2019–2026).
What the options say
What investors are betting on and over what horizon · shows how money is positioned, not a guarantee · below, the probabilities verified on historical data
SP500
7,677 +0.70%
⇅ SPLIT
Investors are split: some are betting on a decline, others on a rise, over the next ~30 days – there is no dominant bet.
Why: Conflicting signals. Short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress), but at the same time new long positions came in (2.1% in a single day).
Next 5 sessions (volatility 13.9%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 7,541 – 7,815 · 90% between 7,465 – 7,894
Chance of reaching: ↑ R1 7,725: 72% · R2 7,827: 22%
Chance of reaching: ↓ P 7,669: 85% · S1 7,567: 37%
DAX
25,411 +0.91%
NO OPTIONSNo options data for this instrument. The ranges below are calculated from realized volatility.
Next 5 sessions (volatility 14.4%, 20-day realized volatility)
70% chance between 24,885 – 25,947 · 90% between 24,510 – 26,345
Chance of reaching: ↑ R1 25,587: 73% · R2 25,993: 24%
Chance of reaching: ↓ P 25,300: 76% · S1 24,895: 30%
VIX
18.39 -5.45%
⚡ VOLATILE
Investors are not betting on a direction, but they expect LARGE moves over the next ~30 days (the market is pricing ±28.5%).
Why: No clear direction. New positions betting on a decline were opened (-0.8% in a single day) and short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress), but not enough to tip the balance.
Next 5 sessions (volatility 98.7%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 15.97 – 21.17 · 90% between 14.48 – 23.35
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 18.87: 86% · R1 21.24: 39%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 17.09: 59% · S2 14.72: 9%
Good to know about the VIX
  • The VIX shows how large a move the market expects in the SP500 over the next 30 days. It usually rises when stocks fall and drifts lower slowly when the market is calm.
  • VIX calls are bought mainly as protection for stock portfolios: buying calls is a bet that fear will rise. That is why a low put/call ratio (0.2–0.4) is normal for the VIX and does not mean optimism.
  • VIX options are priced off VIX futures, not off the index shown here, and they expire on a Wednesday (30 days before the monthly SP500 options expiry). At expiry they settle at a special VIX value calculated on the morning of that day.
  • The VIX tends to revert towards its long-term average (around 19–20). Spikes above 30 happen in moments of panic and usually do not last long.
  • VIX CFDs and ETFs track the futures, not the index. In calm periods the futures trade above the VIX and VIX products gradually lose value (contango), even if the VIX itself stays flat.
WTI
101.76 -1.46%
↔ STABLE
Investors are betting on STABILITY over the next ~30 days: there are no dominant bets; the priced move is ±15.6% (1 standard deviation).
Why: No clear direction. New positions betting on a decline were opened (-2.5% in a single day), but not enough to tip the balance.
Next 5 sessions (volatility 53.9%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 94.37 – 109.73 · 90% between 90.31 – 114.66
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 103.34: 84% · R1 110.41: 25%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 96.19: 44% · S2 89.12: 9%
GOLD
4,038 +0.76%
↓ DECLINE
Investors are betting on a DECLINE over the next ~30 days (the horizon of the skew and volatility indicators).
Why: Heavy buying of downside protection. Puts are much more expensive than usual relative to calls and short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress).
⚠ The volatility term structure has INVERTED (backwardation) – the market is under stress
Next 5 sessions (volatility 20.5%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 3,923 – 4,157 · 90% between 3,853 – 4,232
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 4,069: 76% · R1 4,150: 33%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 3,928: 26% · S2 3,847: 8%
SILVER
54.11 +0.74%
↓ DECLINE
Investors are betting on a DECLINE over the next ~30 days (the horizon of the skew and volatility indicators).
Why: Heavy buying of downside protection. Puts are much more expensive than usual relative to calls and short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress).
Next 5 sessions (volatility 37.5%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 51.34 – 57.02 · 90% between 49.48 – 59.17
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 55.04: 65% · R1 56.37: 35%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 52.38: 41% · S2 51.05: 20%
EURUSD
1.1218 -0.03%
↓ DECLINE
Investors are betting on a DECLINE over the next ~30 days (the horizon of the skew and volatility indicators).
Why: Money is positioning for a decline. Short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress).
⚠ Options volume 3.1× above normal, dominated by puts
Next 5 sessions (volatility 7.3%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 1.1112 – 1.1324 · 90% between 1.1043 – 1.1395
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 1.1223: 85% · R1 1.1258: 67%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 1.1186: 72% · S2 1.1150: 52%
GBPUSD
1.3378 -0.20%
⇅ SPLIT
Investors are split: some are betting on a decline, others on a rise, over the next ~30 days – there is no dominant bet.
Why: Conflicting signals. Short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress), but at the same time new long positions came in (2.0% in a single day).
⚠ The volatility term structure has INVERTED (backwardation) – the market is under stress
Next 5 sessions (volatility 7.2%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 1.3254 – 1.3503 · 90% between 1.3183 – 1.3576
Chance of reaching: ↑ R1 1.3446: 56% · R2 1.3488: 37%
Chance of reaching: ↓ P 1.3375: 87% · S1 1.3333: 69%
USDJPY
156.83 +0.21%
NO OPTIONSNo options data for this instrument. The ranges below are calculated from realized volatility.
Next 5 sessions (volatility 4.8%, 20-day realized volatility)
70% chance between 155.77 – 157.90 · 90% between 154.97 – 158.71
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 157.06: 76% · R1 158.03: 26%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 155.53: 24% · S2 154.56: 8%
NVIDIA
216.00 +2.39%
⇅ SPLIT
Investors are split: some are betting on a decline, others on a rise, over the next ~30 days – there is no dominant bet.
Why: Conflicting signals. Puts are much more expensive than usual relative to calls, but at the same time new long positions came in (2.5% in a single day).
Next 5 sessions (volatility 41.4%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 204.14 – 228.54 · 90% between 196.82 – 237.05
Chance of reaching: ↑ R1 218.71: 81% · R2 226.45: 39%
Chance of reaching: ↓ P 214.44: 82% · S1 206.70: 37%
GOOGLE
316.80 -1.06%
⇅ SPLIT
Investors are split: some are betting on a decline, others on a rise, over the next ~30 days – there is no dominant bet.
Why: Conflicting signals. Short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress), but at the same time new long positions came in (0.9% in a single day).
Next 5 sessions (volatility 38.4%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 300.67 – 333.79 · 90% between 290.60 – 345.36
Chance of reaching: ↑ P 328.99: 46% · R1 337.80: 20%
Chance of reaching: ↓ S1 311.40: 65% · S2 302.59: 33%
MICROSOFT
532.60 +1.54%
⇅ SPLIT
Investors are split: some are betting on a decline, others on a rise, over the next ~30 days – there is no dominant bet.
Why: Conflicting signals. Short-term volatility is above long-term volatility (stress), but at the same time more calls are trading than usual and new long positions came in (1.2% in a single day).
Next 5 sessions (volatility 33.1%, IV30 implied volatility)
70% chance between 509.99 – 556.21 · 90% between 496.63 – 571.17
Chance of reaching: ↑ R1 534.82: 90% · R2 545.13: 60%
Chance of reaching: ↓ P 525.26: 68% · S1 514.95: 39%
Technical analysis · one-hour chart (H1)
Timeframe: one-hour chart (H1) · 1–3 day trend · daily support and resistance
⏱ Signal on the one-hour chart (H1) · R1 and S1 are daily levels, valid for Tue Oct 27 · the legend is at the end of the section
SP500STRONG SELLscore -65 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative.
Resistance 1 (R1): 7,706 · Support 1 (S1): 7,644
⚠ Price moved above the weekly pivot P (7,669).
DAXBUYscore +35 of ±100
Uptrend: most technical signals are positive.
Resistance 1 (R1): 25,541 · Support 1 (S1): 25,249
⚠ Price moved above the weekly pivot P (25,300).
VIXSELLscore -60 of ±100
Downtrend: most technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up.
Resistance 1 (R1): 19.56 · Support 1 (S1): 17.51
⚠ The technical signal reversed: BUY → SELL.
⚠ Price fell below the weekly pivot P (18.87).
WTIBUYscore +55 of ±100
Uptrend: most technical signals are positive.
Resistance 1 (R1): 103.15 · Support 1 (S1): 100.35
GOLDSTRONG SELLscore -75 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative.
Resistance 1 (R1): 4,058 · Support 1 (S1): 4,005
⚠ New technical signal: momentum has turned down.
SILVERSTRONG SELLscore -85 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative.
Resistance 1 (R1): 54.11 · Support 1 (S1): 54.11 · price is below S1
⚠ The technical signal reversed: BUY → STRONG SELL.
EUR/USDSTRONG SELLscore -70 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up.
Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1238 · Support 1 (S1): 1.1186 · price is below S1
GBPUSDSTRONG SELLscore -70 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up.
Resistance 1 (R1): 1.3401 · Support 1 (S1): 1.3342 · price is below S1
⚠ New technical signal: momentum has turned up.
USDJPYSTRONG BUYscore +100 of ±100
Strong uptrend: almost all technical signals are positive.
Resistance 1 (R1): 157.42 · Support 1 (S1): 156.45 · price is above R1
NVIDIASELLscore -35 of ±100
Downtrend: most technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up.
Resistance 1 (R1): 218.30 · Support 1 (S1): 213.16
⚠ Price moved above the weekly pivot P (214.44).
⚠ New technical signal: momentum has turned up.
GOOGLESTRONG SELLscore -100 of ±100
Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative.
Resistance 1 (R1): 319.99 · Support 1 (S1): 315.11
MICROSOFTNEUTRALscore +5 of ±100
No clear trend: technical signals are mixed.
Resistance 1 (R1): 536.67 · Support 1 (S1): 525.11
⚠ Price moved above the weekly pivot P (525.26).

Legend · how to read the technical analysis

We look at the one-hour price chart and ask: which way is the trend heading right now? Several trend and price-strength indicators award points: plus for a rise, minus for a decline. The result is the score, from −100 to +100.
STRONG SELL
−100…−65		SELL
−64…−35		NEUTRAL
−34…+34		BUY
+35…+64		STRONG BUY
+65…+100

What you see on the chart

Candles – one candle = one hour. Green: it closed higher than it opened; red: lower. The wick shows the high and low of the hour. Hover over a candle to see the prices.
R1 – resistance 1: the first level above, where rallies often stall.
S1 – support 1: the first level below, where declines often stall.
Timeframe: one-hour chart (H1). The signal describes the short-term trend, i.e. the last 1–3 days, so it can change from one day to the next. R1 and S1 are calculated from the previous day's high, low and close and apply to the day shown at the top.
BUY/SELL describes the current trend; it does not guarantee that it will continue. The signal is not a statistically validated prediction.
Major macroeconomic news
Romania time (EET) · calendar and the moves priced by the options market
Wed Oct 28, 20:00Fed interest rate decision (FOMC) · SPX options are pricing a ±0.86% move (1.1× a normal day)VERY HIGH
Thu Oct 29, 14:30PCE inflation · SPX options are pricing a ±0.89% move (1.1× a normal day)HIGH
Mon Nov 2, 16:00ISM indexHIGH
Tue Nov 3, 17:00Job openings (JOLTS)MEDIUM
Wed Nov 4, 16:00ISM index · SPX options are pricing a ±0.97% move (1.2× a normal day)HIGH
Fri Nov 6, 15:30Jobs (NFP)VERY HIGH
Tue Nov 10, 15:30CPI inflationVERY HIGH
⚠ The SPY expiry on Fri Oct 30 comes right after the Fed interest rate decision (FOMC) – the days in between can be very volatile.
Macro headlines from the last 24h
Options expiries for each symbol
“Magnet” = max pain, the price at which option buyers would lose the most at expiry (a reference level, not a prediction)
What is the “magnet”?
The magnet is the price at which option buyers would lose the most money at expiry: at that price, the most bets expire worthless. On the other side are the option sellers, usually banks and large firms. To hedge their risk they buy and sell in the market, and this tends to pull the price towards the zone where they lose the least, especially in the last few days before expiry and when there is no major news.
How to read it: if the price is close to the magnet before expiry, it may stay “pinned” around it; if the magnet is higher or lower, it shows a slight pull in that direction. It is a reference level, not a prediction: major news can override it at any time.
SP500 (SPY options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 302.26M2.69≈ 7,6747,474 / 8,025
Fri Nov 20 monthly3.24M4.93≈ 7,7247,524 / 8,025
The magnet for Fri Oct 30 (7,674) is practically at the current price.
A put/call of 4.93 on the Fri Nov 20 expiry means a lot of hedging. If the market does not fall, this protection gets unwound and can push the price higher.
DAX
Monthly Eurex expiry: Fri Nov 20 · Quarterly: Fri Dec 18. We have no open interest data.
VIX (VIX options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Wed Oct 28280K0.25≈ 18.0018.00 / 20.00
Wed Nov 186.09M0.31≈ 18.5017.50 / 20.00
Very low put/call (0.31): positioning is dominated by calls.
Good to know about the VIX
  • The VIX shows how large a move the market expects in the SP500 over the next 30 days. It usually rises when stocks fall and drifts lower slowly when the market is calm.
  • VIX calls are bought mainly as protection for stock portfolios: buying calls is a bet that fear will rise. That is why a low put/call ratio (0.2–0.4) is normal for the VIX and does not mean optimism.
  • VIX options are priced off VIX futures, not off the index shown here, and they expire on a Wednesday (30 days before the monthly SP500 options expiry). At expiry they settle at a special VIX value calculated on the morning of that day.
WTI (USO options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30119K1.22≈ 97.3094.86 / 103.42
Fri Nov 20 monthly166K0.98≈ 91.8094.86 / 107.10
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is lower (91.80), against the technical signal.
The put wall at 94.86 coincides with pivot S1.
The call wall at 103.42 coincides with pivot P.
GOLD (GLD options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30136K0.61≈ 4,1173,843 / 4,282
Fri Nov 20 monthly910K0.79≈ 4,2823,788 / 4,172
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (4,282), against the technical signal.
The put wall at 3,843 coincides with pivot S2.
The call wall at 4,282 coincides with pivot R2.
SILVER (SLV options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30116K0.41≈ 57.8250.04 / 55.60
Fri Nov 20 monthly718K0.30≈ 60.0553.37 / 57.82
Very low put/call (0.30): positioning is dominated by calls.
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (60.05), against the technical signal.
EURUSD (FXE options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Nov 20 monthly7210.92≈ 1.14131.1196 / 1.1413
Price (1.1218) is sitting on the put wall for the Fri Nov 20 expiry. Below 1.1196, the decline could accelerate.
The put wall at 1.1196 coincides with pivot S1.
GBPUSD (FXB options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Nov 20 monthly2322.00≈ 1.37501.3333 / 1.3437
Price (1.3378) is sitting right on the call wall for the Fri Nov 20 expiry. Above 1.3437, the move could accelerate.
A put/call of 22.00 on the Fri Nov 20 expiry means a lot of hedging. If the market does not fall, this protection gets unwound and can push the price higher.
The put wall at 1.3333 coincides with pivot S1.
USDJPY
We have no options data for this instrument.
NVIDIA (NVDA options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30677K0.72≈ 215.00210.00 / 225.00
Fri Nov 20 monthly1.50M0.76≈ 210.00200.00 / 230.00
The magnet for Fri Oct 30 (215.00) is practically at the current price.
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is lower (210.00).
The call wall at 225.00 coincides with pivot R2.
GOOGLE (GOOGL options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30196K0.69≈ 337.50305.00 / 335.00
Fri Nov 20 monthly542K0.47≈ 340.00300.00 / 340.00
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (340.00), against the technical signal.
The put wall at 305.00 coincides with pivot S2.
MICROSOFT (MSFT options)
EXPIRYCONTRACTSPUT/CALLMAGNETSUPPORT / RESISTANCE
Fri Oct 30173K0.44≈ 520.00500.00 / 555.00
Fri Nov 20 monthly439K0.64≈ 470.00500.00 / 535.00
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is lower (470.00).
The call wall at 555.00 coincides with pivot R3.
The probabilities in the Options section are the only ones verified statistically: calibrated on each instrument's 2007–2026 history and tested on unseen years (the 70% range contained the price in 68–74% of cases). Options positioning and technical signals describe the market, but historical tests have shown no edge in predicting direction. Options levels are converted from the ETF to the instrument's price.
Disclaimer – limitation of liability
Daily Market is an automatically generated report, for information and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an offer or solicitation to trade any financial instrument.
The data comes from third-party sources (market and options data providers, Yahoo Finance, Google News) and may contain errors, omissions or delays; its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Results and probabilities calculated on historical data do not guarantee future results.
Trading CFDs, futures and options carries a high risk of loss, including the loss of all invested capital. The author of the report accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this information or for any direct or indirect losses resulting from it. Every trading decision belongs solely to the reader, who takes it at their own risk.

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