Markets on Monday, October 26, 2026
Mixed markets: the trend is up in VIX, SILVER and USD/JPY and down in SP500, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVIDIA, GOOGLE and MICROSOFT. Overall sentiment is fear…
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Monday, Oct 26, 2026 · SP500 · DAX · VIX · WTI · GOLD · SILVER · EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · NVIDIA · GOOGLE · MICROSOFT
Data from the US market close on Friday, Oct 23 (4 pm New York time)
Generated Oct 26, 2026, 13:10 Romania time (EET) · For information only, not investment advice (see the disclaimer at the end)
Daily Brief · the markets in short The state of the markets and sentiment at the session close, all in one place Mixed markets: the trend is up in VIX, SILVER and USD/JPY and down in SP500, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVIDIA, GOOGLE and MICROSOFT. Overall sentiment is fear (35 of 100), more cautious than a week ago (43). 35 FEAR Overall sentiment · average of the 11 markets a week ago: 43 What you need to know today
Today’s financial news
Click a headline to read the article. All markets at a glance
To watch DAX – Price fell below weekly support S1 (25,273). VIX – Price moved above the weekly pivot P (19.09). WTI – New technical signal: momentum has turned down. GOLD – Price fell below weekly support S2 (4,026). SILVER – The technical signal reversed: SELL → BUY. USD/JPY – Price fell below weekly support S2 (156.83). Wed Oct 28, 20:00 – Fed interest rate decision (FOMC) · SPX options are pricing a ±1.12% move (1.1× a normal day) Thu Oct 29, 14:30 – PCE inflation · SPX options are pricing a ±1.07% move (1.1× a normal day) Summary generated automatically from the report data. It describes the state of the market at the close and does not predict direction. The details are in the other tabs. |
Market sentiment · Fear & Greed 0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed · each indicator is compared with its own past year · describes the state of the market, does not predict direction
In short: fear in US stocks (SP500), DAX, gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT); greed in oil; extreme fear in silver and Google (GOOGL); neutral in GBP/USD. US stocks (SP500): 37 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). DAX: 37 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). Oil: 58 · greed · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index). Gold: 31 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: positive (for information, not part of the index). Silver: 23 · extreme fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index). EUR/USD: 30 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: positive (for information, not part of the index). GBP/USD: 46 · neutral · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: mixed (for information, not part of the index). USD/JPY: 41 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). Nvidia (NVDA): 26 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). Google (GOOGL): 20 · extreme fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). Microsoft (MSFT): 36 · fear · see the explanations
Tone of the analyses published today: negative (for information, not part of the index). How it is calculated: each indicator gets a score from 0 to 100 based on how today's value compares with the last 252 sessions (e.g. 80 = “greedier” than on 80% of days in the past year). The final score is their average, with equal weights. There is no options data for the DAX, so its index uses only momentum, trend and volatility. Extremes show a stretched market, but historical tests have not shown that they predict the direction of the following days. |
Forecast for the next session Based on the last 20 sessions · ranges verified on historical data · not a guarantee Warning – the forecast is not a guarantee. The estimates below are statistical calculations based on the last 20 sessions and on history since 2007. The market can break out of these ranges at any time, especially on unexpected news. We accept no liability for the forecast or for any decisions or losses resulting from its use. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. SP500 STRONG SELL DAX HOLD VIX BUY WTI BUY GOLD HOLD SILVER HOLD EUR/USD SELL GBPUSD STRONG SELL USDJPY STRONG BUY NVIDIA STRONG SELL GOOGLE STRONG SELL MICROSOFT STRONG SELL 70% chance90% chancetoday's closeR / S, P = level and the chance it is reached tomorrow SP500Mon Oct 26 · close 7,624 · typical move ±0.62%STRONG SELL Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline. 70% chance of closing between 7,575 – 7,672 · 90% between 7,539 – 7,709 · typical high ≈ 7,649, typical low ≈ 7,601 Chance of reaching:↑ P 7,669 · 28%↑ R1 7,725 · 4%↓ S1 7,567 · 21%↓ S2 7,510 · 5% DAXMon Oct 26 · close 25,182 · typical move ±0.88%HOLD Why: No clear signal: no clear trend, no options data. 70% chance of closing between 24,960 – 25,406 · 90% between 24,786 – 25,583 · typical high ≈ 25,310, typical low ≈ 25,070 Chance of reaching:↑ P 25,300 · 52%↑ R1 25,587 · 7%↓ S1 24,895 · 19%↓ S2 24,608 · 3% VIXMon Oct 26 · close 19.45 · typical move ±6.85%BUY Why: Uptrend, no dominant bet in options. 70% chance of closing between 18.22 – 20.77 · 90% between 17.27 – 21.91 · typical high ≈ 20.29, typical low ≈ 18.75 Chance of reaching:↑ R1 21.24 · 24%↑ R2 23.02 · 6%↓ P 18.87 · 56%↓ S1 17.09 · 5% WTIMon Oct 26 · close 103.27 · typical move ±2.43%BUY Why: No clear trend, options are betting on a rise. 70% chance of closing between 100.72 – 105.88 · 90% between 98.99 – 107.74 · typical high ≈ 104.92, typical low ≈ 101.68 Chance of reaching:↑ P 103.34 · 91%↑ R1 110.41 · 2%↓ S1 96.19 · 3%↓ S2 89.12 · under 1% GOLDMon Oct 26 · close 4,008 · typical move ±1.21%HOLD Why: No clear signal: no clear trend, no dominant bet in options. 70% chance of closing between 3,962 – 4,055 · 90% between 3,923 – 4,094 · typical high ≈ 4,034, typical low ≈ 3,985 Chance of reaching:↑ P 4,069 · 19%↑ R1 4,150 · 2%↓ S1 3,928 · 11%↓ S2 3,847 · under 1% SILVERMon Oct 26 · close 53.71 · typical move ±2.34%HOLD Why: Opposing signals: uptrend, but options are betting on a decline. 70% chance of closing between 52.52 – 54.93 · 90% between 51.53 – 55.99 · typical high ≈ 54.17, typical low ≈ 53.37 Chance of reaching:↑ P 55.04 · 20%↑ R1 56.37 · 5%↓ S1 52.38 · 19%↓ S2 51.05 · 5% EUR/USDMon Oct 26 · close 1.1221 · typical move ±0.26%SELL Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options. 70% chance of closing between 1.1192 – 1.1251 · 90% between 1.1170 – 1.1273 · typical high ≈ 1.1239, typical low ≈ 1.1203 Chance of reaching:↑ P 1.1223 · 74%↑ R1 1.1258 · 28%↓ S1 1.1186 · 28%↓ S2 1.1150 · 7% GBPUSDMon Oct 26 · close 1.3404 · typical move ±0.29%STRONG SELL Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options. 70% chance of closing between 1.3365 – 1.3443 · 90% between 1.3337 – 1.3471 · typical high ≈ 1.3428, typical low ≈ 1.3379 Chance of reaching:↑ R1 1.3446 · 33%↑ R2 1.3488 · 9%↓ P 1.3375 · 47%↓ S1 1.3333 · 15% USDJPYMon Oct 26 · close 156.49 · typical move ±0.35%STRONG BUY Why: Uptrend, no options data. 70% chance of closing between 155.95 – 157.03 · 90% between 155.57 – 157.43 · typical high ≈ 156.80, typical low ≈ 156.20 Chance of reaching:↑ P 157.06 · 32%↑ R1 158.03 · 4%↓ S1 155.53 · 15%↓ S2 154.56 · under 1% NVIDIAMon Oct 26 · close 210.96 · typical move ±1.86%STRONG SELL Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline. 70% chance of closing between 207.09 – 214.90 · 90% between 204.37 – 217.76 · typical high ≈ 213.28, typical low ≈ 208.93 Chance of reaching:↑ P 214.44 · 34%↑ R1 218.71 · 6%↓ S1 206.70 · 24%↓ S2 202.43 · 5% GOOGLEMon Oct 26 · close 320.21 · typical move ±1.33%STRONG SELL Why: Downtrend, no dominant bet in options. 70% chance of closing between 316.17 – 324.31 · 90% between 313.00 – 327.59 · typical high ≈ 322.68, typical low ≈ 318.09 Chance of reaching:↑ P 328.99 · 6%↑ R1 337.80 · under 1%↓ S1 311.40 · 6%↓ S2 302.59 · under 1% MICROSOFTMon Oct 26 · close 524.51 · typical move ±1.24%STRONG SELL Why: Downtrend, options are betting on a decline. 70% chance of closing between 518.17 – 530.93 · 90% between 513.22 – 536.04 · typical high ≈ 528.20, typical low ≈ 520.99 Chance of reaching:↑ P 525.26 · 79%↑ R1 534.82 · 12%↓ S1 514.95 · 14%↓ S2 505.39 · 2% How the verdict is formed. BUY or SELL when the technical trend and options positioning point in the same direction, or when only one of them has a direction (STRONG when both agree or the trend is very strong); HOLD when they contradict each other or neither has a direction. It is a signal, not a probability: tested over 2007–2026, no model called the next day's direction better than chance. The ranges, on the other hand, are verified: the 70% range contained the close on 68%–73% of days (2019–2026). |
What the options say What investors are betting on and over what horizon · shows how money is positioned, not a guarantee · below, the probabilities verified on historical data
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Technical analysis · one-hour chart (H1) Timeframe: one-hour chart (H1) · 1–3 day trend · daily support and resistance ⏱ Signal on the one-hour chart (H1) · R1 and S1 are daily levels, valid for Mon Oct 26 · the legend is at the end of the section SP500SELLscore -55 of ±100 Downtrend: most technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up. Resistance 1 (R1): 7,652 · Support 1 (S1): 7,604 DAXNEUTRALscore +10 of ±100 No clear trend: technical signals are mixed. Resistance 1 (R1): 25,336 · Support 1 (S1): 25,020 · price is above R1 ⚠ Price fell below weekly support S1 (25,273). VIXBUYscore +35 of ±100 Uptrend: most technical signals are positive, but short-term momentum has weakened. Resistance 1 (R1): 20.45 · Support 1 (S1): 18.66 ⚠ Price moved above the weekly pivot P (19.09). ⚠ New technical signal: the underlying trend has turned up. WTINEUTRALscore -5 of ±100 No clear trend: technical signals are mixed. Resistance 1 (R1): 105.18 · Support 1 (S1): 100.10 ⚠ New technical signal: momentum has turned down. GOLDNEUTRALscore -5 of ±100 No clear trend: technical signals are mixed. Resistance 1 (R1): 4,042 · Support 1 (S1): 3,981 ⚠ Price fell below weekly support S2 (4,026). SILVERBUYscore +50 of ±100 Uptrend: most technical signals are positive. Resistance 1 (R1): 53.71 · Support 1 (S1): 53.71 · price is above R1 ⚠ The technical signal reversed: SELL → BUY. EUR/USDSELLscore -45 of ±100 Downtrend: most technical signals are negative. Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1236 · Support 1 (S1): 1.1197 GBPUSDSTRONG SELLscore -100 of ±100 Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative. Resistance 1 (R1): 1.3419 · Support 1 (S1): 1.3377 · price is below S1 USDJPYSTRONG BUYscore +100 of ±100 Strong uptrend: almost all technical signals are positive. Resistance 1 (R1): 157.06 · Support 1 (S1): 156.01 · price is above R1 ⚠ Price fell below weekly support S2 (156.83). ⚠ Price fell below weekly support S1 (157.48). NVIDIASELLscore -55 of ±100 Downtrend: most technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up. Resistance 1 (R1): 213.15 · Support 1 (S1): 209.48 GOOGLESTRONG SELLscore -70 of ±100 Strong downtrend: almost all technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up. Resistance 1 (R1): 323.10 · Support 1 (S1): 318.75 MICROSOFTSELLscore -50 of ±100 Downtrend: most technical signals are negative, but short-term momentum has turned up. Resistance 1 (R1): 528.29 · Support 1 (S1): 518.22 Legend · how to read the technical analysisWe look at the one-hour price chart and ask: which way is the trend heading right now? Several trend and price-strength indicators award points: plus for a rise, minus for a decline. The result is the score, from −100 to +100.
What you see on the chartCandles – one candle = one hour. Green: it closed higher than it opened; red: lower. The wick shows the high and low of the hour. Hover over a candle to see the prices. R1 – resistance 1: the first level above, where rallies often stall. S1 – support 1: the first level below, where declines often stall. Timeframe: one-hour chart (H1). The signal describes the short-term trend, i.e. the last 1–3 days, so it can change from one day to the next. R1 and S1 are calculated from the previous day's high, low and close and apply to the day shown at the top. BUY/SELL describes the current trend; it does not guarantee that it will continue. The signal is not a statistically validated prediction. |
Major macroeconomic news Romania time (EET) · calendar and the moves priced by the options market
⚠ The SPY expiry on Fri Oct 30 comes right after the Fed interest rate decision (FOMC) – the days in between can be very volatile. Macro headlines from the last 24h
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Options expiries for each symbol “Magnet” = max pain, the price at which option buyers would lose the most at expiry (a reference level, not a prediction) SP500 (SPY options)
A put/call of 4.88 on the Fri Nov 20 expiry means a lot of hedging. If the market does not fall, this protection gets unwound and can push the price higher. For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (7,728), against the technical signal. DAX Monthly Eurex expiry: Fri Nov 20 · Quarterly: Fri Dec 18. We have no open interest data. VIX (VIX options)
Very low put/call (0.30): positioning is dominated by calls. For Wed Nov 18, the magnet is lower (18.50), against the technical signal. The put wall at 19.00 coincides with pivot P. Good to know about the VIX
WTI (USO options)
Price (103.27) is sitting right on the call wall for the Fri Oct 30 expiry. Above 103.56, the move could accelerate. For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is lower (91.37). The put wall at 97.46 coincides with pivot S1. GOLD (GLD options)
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (4,263). SILVER (SLV options)
Very low put/call (0.29): positioning is dominated by calls. For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (60.63). The call wall at 55.12 coincides with pivot P. EURUSD (FXE options)
Price (1.1221) is sitting on the put wall for the Fri Nov 20 expiry. Below 1.1178, the decline could accelerate. The put wall at 1.1178 coincides with pivot S1. GBPUSD (FXB options)
Price (1.3404) is sitting right on the call wall for the Fri Nov 20 expiry. Above 1.3439, the move could accelerate. A put/call of 32.00 on the Fri Nov 20 expiry means a lot of hedging. If the market does not fall, this protection gets unwound and can push the price higher. The put wall at 1.3335 coincides with pivot S1. USDJPY We have no options data for this instrument. NVIDIA (NVDA options)
Price (210.96) is sitting on the put wall for the Fri Oct 30 expiry. Below 210.00, the decline could accelerate. The call wall at 225.00 coincides with pivot R2. GOOGLE (GOOGL options)
For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is higher (345.00), against the technical signal. The put wall at 305.00 coincides with pivot S2. MICROSOFT (MSFT options)
The magnet for Fri Oct 30 (525.00) is practically at the current price. For Fri Nov 20, the magnet is lower (470.00). The call wall at 555.00 coincides with pivot R3. The probabilities in the Options section are the only ones verified statistically: calibrated on each instrument's 2007–2026 history and tested on unseen years (the 70% range contained the price in 68–74% of cases). Options positioning and technical signals describe the market, but historical tests have shown no edge in predicting direction. Options levels are converted from the ETF to the instrument's price. |
Disclaimer – limitation of liability Daily Market is an automatically generated report, for information and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or an offer or solicitation to trade any financial instrument. The data comes from third-party sources (market and options data providers, Yahoo Finance, Google News) and may contain errors, omissions or delays; its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Results and probabilities calculated on historical data do not guarantee future results. Trading CFDs, futures and options carries a high risk of loss, including the loss of all invested capital. The author of the report accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this information or for any direct or indirect losses resulting from it. Every trading decision belongs solely to the reader, who takes it at their own risk. |
Interactive hourly charts are available in the live report on dailymarketlab.com.